Mr. Marzban Irani

Chief Investment Officer – Fixed Income, LIC Mutual Fund

Mr. Marzban Irani is our debt market expert having rich experience of 25 years in Fixed Income. He has played a pivotal role in building LICMF’s image of Mutual Fund of investor’s choice for Debt funds. Mr Irani is a PGDBM - Chetana’s Institute of Management & Research, Mumbai. B.Com – Mumbai University.

Experience:

Chief Investment Officer Fixed Income - LIC Mutual Fund Asset Management Ltd. (w.e.f. 24/04/2019)

Fund Manager Fixed Income - LIC Mutual Fund Asset Management Ltd. (w.e.f. 04/08/2016)

VP Fixed Income - DSP BlackRock Investment Managers (Jun 2014 Jul 2016)

Senior Fund Manager Fixed Income - TATA Asset Management (Jun 2011- May 2014).

Fund Manager Fixed Income METLIFE INDIA INSURANCE (Sep 2010 May 2011)

Fund Manager Fixed Income - Mirae Asset Global Investment Mgmt India (Jan 2008 Jul 2010)

Fund Manager Fixed Income TATA Asset Management (Sep 2000- Nov 2007)

Q1. May 2025 witnessed one of the year's strongest net FPI (Foreign Portfolio Investor) inflows. What could be the reasons behind this surge?

Ans 1. Debt inflow was only 1100 cr.

Q2. How do you interpret the RBI's recent repo rate and CRR cuts? Do you believe the RBI has strategically frontloaded these measures, anticipating a surplus liquidity situation that might require further rate adjustments closer to Q4 FY26?

Ans 2. In the June 2025 policy the RBI has cut the repo by 50 bps. When the rate cut cycle started, the cut expectation was lower. In the rising interest rate scenario, the domestic rate hikes were limited unlike the US where the rates went up from almost 0 to 5%. Hence the leeway to cut was limited. Domestic inflation has bottomed out. Going ahead, there are geo- political risks. Ukraine Russia war is not yet over, the recent Iran Israel conflict is on and India has had a short war with Pakistan. Monsoon which was expected to be normal has been below expectations in the month of June. We would know by august how the monsoon has fared like spatial distribution etc. Oil prices have moved up and India being a net importer of oil has to be watchful. All these factors may pose an upside risk to inflation. Going ahead, global growth is a challenge. Also private capex needs to come up. Consumption needs a boost. Hence between growth and inflation tradeoff , the growth numbers needed a push. Hence, this was a good decision from RBI to cut rates on a proactive basis. As far as CRR is concerned, as we move into the busy season, at the time of advance tax outflow/GST outflow there can be liquidity mismatch temporarily. Hence infusion via CRR may help to balance out liquidity.

Q3. The RBI's shift from an accommodative to a neutral stance has surprised many. What do you believe is the rationale behind this change, and how do you anticipate it will impact the RBI's future projections?

Ans 3. The leeway to cut is limited. Accommodative stance indicates a cut or a pause. As the leeway to cut is not visible in the immediate future, the neutral stance was announced. As far as liquidity is concerned RBI has ensured ample liquidity with a preemptive CRR cut especially during the festive season which would help in further transmission of the rate cuts. RBI may continue to be data dependent especially on the geo political front and guidance by FED.

Q4. What does rise in US Bond Yields mean for Indian markets? Could this lead to a rotation from equities to bonds, as seen historically?

Ans 4. Decoupling has been happening in the last few years. Spread which was around 500 bps has now shrunk to around 150 bps. DE dollarization is the key thing. China has reduced US treasury holding and central banks are shifting gradually to gold reserves. Today the dollar is the reserve currency but going ahead it might lose this position. What will matter for rates in India is the stability of currency which has been largely impacted currently by the geo political scenario rather than US rates.

Q5. Are you observing a growing investor preference for Debt + Arbitrage funds? How do you assess their suitability in the current market environment?

Ans 5. From a tax perspective this product is looking good at the moment. Volatility is less. However, investors should choose to invest based on their investment horizon and risk appetite.

Q6. What factors do you anticipate will drive the Indian fixed income market in 2025?

Ans 6. In the last three years starting July 2022 where the yields almost peaked, investors in fixed income have been getting capital appreciation besides regular accrual. As we move ahead capital appreciation looks limited or flat. Hence it will be an accrual strategy. Hence investors with fixed income allocation should stick to their allocation. It’s a cycle which will change. The fiscal deficit number has been declining. The government is following a prudent path. This might lead to a global rating upgrade going ahead.

Please note we have published the answers as it is received from the Fund Manager of LIC.

Note: Views provided above are based on information in the public domain and subject to change. Investors are requested to consult their mutual fund distributor for any investment decisions.

Source: RBI, Bloomberg.

Disclaimer: The views expressed herein are based on internal data, publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable. Any calculations made are approximations, meant as guidelines only, which you must confirm before relying on them. The information contained in this document is for general purposes only. The document is given in summary form and does not purport to be complete. The document does not have regard to specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. The information / data herein alone are not sufficient and should not be used for the development or implementation of an investment strategy. The statements contained herein are based on our current views and involve known and unknown risk and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance, or event to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. LIC Mutual Fund Asset Management Ltd. / LIC Mutual Fund is not guaranteeing / offering / communicating any indicative yield on investment made in the scheme(s). Neither LIC Mutual Fund Asset Management Ltd. and LIC Mutual Fund (the fund) nor any person connected with them, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients before acting on any information herein should make his/her/their own investigation and seek appropriate professional advice and shall alone be fully responsible / liable for any decision taken on the basis of information contained herein.

MUTUAL FUND INVESTMENTS ARE SUBJECT TO MARKET RISKS, READ ALL SCHEME RELATED DOCUMENTS CAREFULLY

Mr. Nikhil Rungta

Chief Investment Officer - Equity, LIC Mutual Fund

Mr. Nikhil Rungta is a seasoned investment professional with extensive experience in managing diverse investment portfolios. He has a track record of developing and implementing successful investment strategies and also has demonstrated ability to conduct comprehensive market analysis and identify investment opportunities. Mr. Rungta is a Rank holder Chartered Accountant, MBA (Finance)-NMIMS, FRM (GARP) and also has Sustainable Investing Certificate issued by CFA Institute.

Experience:

Co - CIO- Equity, LIC Mutual Fund Asset Management Ltd. (w.e.f. 19th June 2024)

Fund Manager (Equity)-SBI Pension Funds Private Limited (w.e.f. 29th April 2024 31st May 2024)

CIO- Equity, Golden Myriad (Garware Group Family Office) (21st November 2023- 4th April 2024)

Co-Fund Manager and Research Analyst - Nippon India Mutual Fund (25th March 2019- 20th November 2023)

Investment Manager and Research Head- BFSI - Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance Company (10th March 2016- 22nd March 2019)

Lead Analyst- BFSI Sector- Anand Rathi Shares & Stock Brokers Limited (16th February 2015- 29th February 2016)

Equity Research Analyst- Standard Chartered Securities (India) Limited (27th September 2012- 8th February 2015)

Equity Research Analyst- Religare Capital Markets Limited (19th October 2010- 21st September 2012)

Q1. The RBI lowered its FY26 inflation forecast to 3.7%, what are your thoughts on this?

Ans 1. The RBI’s revised inflation forecast to 3.7% reflects a combination of softening global commodity prices, easing food inflation, and better supply chain dynamics. This moderation is crucial, especially after the prolonged phase of sticky core inflation over the past couple of years. For markets, this opens up a more stable policy environment, reducing the odds of further tightening and reinforcing the “higher-for-longer” but stable rate regime. It’s also a positive for rate-sensitive sectors like financials, autos, and real estate. While there isn’t any expectation of further immediate rate cuts, the RBI’s stance is increasingly data-dependent - which gives markets room to focus on earnings growth rather than macro risk.

Q2. Given the substantial rise in mutual fund cash allocations (Rs 17,300 crore to Rs 2.23 lakh crore) during April, do you similarly advocate or practice a strategy of utilizing market dips for entry?

Ans 2. Yes, elevated cash levels are not a sign of indecision but of strategic patience. In our view, such liquidity is often a reflection of disciplined fund managers choosing to wait for better valuations - especially in a market where pockets of froth exist. We remain valuation-conscious and continue to follow a staggered deployment strategy. We prefer to use short-term corrections to increase exposure to fundamentally strong businesses, particularly where earnings are visible and margin improvement is likely. Market dips are less about timing and more about readiness - and our current strategy mirrors that belief.

Q3. What key 'triggers' do you anticipate will primarily influence the market's direction in the coming quarters? Specifically, could US-China trade talks or the monsoon season be those catalysts, and do you foresee a significant recovery in overall consumption?

Ans 3. Several domestic and global triggers may shape market direction in the second half of the current financial year. On the domestic front, the progress and spatial distribution of the monsoon may be pivotal - especially for rural demand and agri-input companies. A strong monsoon could lift farm incomes, thereby aiding recovery in rural consumption, which has been somewhat uneven.

Globally, developments like US-China trade normalization or even marginal de-escalation in the Red Sea corridor tensions can significantly boost global trade confidence and lower logistics costs. Additionally, clarity on the Fed’s rate trajectory and US growth stability may be crucial in guiding FII flows and risk sentiment. From a structural lens, the interplay between policy support for manufacturing, continued capex-led growth, and domestic consumption recovery may remain our core investment thesis.

Q4. Despite persistent global volatility, SIP (Systematic Investment Plan) inflows in India have demonstrated remarkable resilience. How do you interpret the underlying psychology of the Indian retail investor in this context, and do you believe this indicates a fundamental, structural shift in investment behavior?

Ans 4. Absolutely. The Indian retail investor has evolved significantly. SIP inflows touching all-time highs month after month - even amidst global volatility and market corrections - indicate a mindset shift from speculative trading to long-term wealth creation.

This behaviour is no longer event-driven but embedded in financial planning. Factors such as better access to financial products, regulatory trust in the MF framework, and digitization have made investing seamless. But beyond the tools, what stands out is the discipline - the awareness that wealth building is a marathon, not a sprint. This resilience is not temporary; it is a structural evolution that may serve as a shock absorber for Indian equity markets in volatile times.

Q5. With all the noise around geopolitical tensions and supply chains, how are you shaping your global macro view and sector preferences?

Ans 5. While geopolitical events like the ongoing conflict in the Middle East or US-China decoupling do create intermittent noise, our investment lens remains focused on India’s relative macro stability and bottom-up sectoral opportunities.

In an environment of fragmented global supply chains, India is emerging as a credible alternative - both for manufacturing and services. As a result, we’re structurally overweight on themes like Make in India, defense indigenization, and import substitution. At the same time, we remain selective in global-facing sectors - especially IT and pharma where margin pressures and order visibility are key variables. The idea is to maintain sectoral balance, backed by earnings clarity and cost leadership.

Q6. Considering the entry of new players, ongoing fee compression, and heightened retail awareness, how do you envision the evolution of the mutual fund industry over the next few years?

Ans 6. The mutual fund industry in India is entering a phase of maturity - with both opportunity and responsibility. On one hand, rising financial awareness, increased digital adoption, and policy nudges are driving deeper penetration, particularly in semi-urban and rural areas. On the other, fee compression and performance scrutiny are intensifying the need for innovation and differentiation.

The next phase is likely to be marked by broader product innovation - from passive funds and smart-beta strategies to thematic and ESG offerings and Specialised Investment Funds (SIFs). Distributors and investors are both becoming more informed, which will demand a shift from mere distribution to need based engagement. For asset managers the focus will be on enhancing investor experience, simplifying communication, and delivering consistent outcomes. Scale and trust may be the true differentiators.

Q7. Given the rising valuations in specific market segments, what's your approach to optimizing risk-adjusted returns across different sectors?

Ans 7. Rising valuations are a natural byproduct of optimism, but they also require caution. Our approach is anchored in relative valuation discipline and fundamental strength. Earnings growth versus price expansion are constantly assessed - and where the gap widens disproportionately, efforts are made to reduce the exposure.

Sectorally, a blend of growth and stability is preferred. Manufacturing, industrials, and utilities offer visibility with policy tailwinds, while select pockets in BFSI and consumption offer scope for margin expansion. We also use cash tactically to navigate market excesses. Ultimately, it’s about building portfolios that can perform not just in momentum phases but also withstand mean-reversion periods.

Please note we have published the answers as it is received from the Fund Manager of LIC.

Note: Views provided above are based on information in the public domain and subject to change. Investors are requested to consult their mutual fund distributor for any investment decisions.Source: RBI, Bloomberg.

Disclaimer: The views expressed herein are based on internal data, publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable. Any calculations made are approximations, meant as guidelines only, which you must confirm before relying on them. The information contained in this document is for general purposes only. The document is given in summary form and does not purport to be complete. The document does not have regard to specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. The information / data herein alone are not sufficient and should not be used for the development or implementation of an investment strategy. The statements contained herein are based on our current views and involve known and unknown risk and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance, or event to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. LIC Mutual Fund Asset Management Ltd. / LIC Mutual Fund is not guaranteeing / offering / communicating any indicative yield on investment made in the scheme(s). Neither LIC Mutual Fund Asset Management Ltd. and LIC Mutual Fund (the fund) nor any person connected with them, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients before acting on any information herein should make his/her/their own investigation and seek appropriate professional advice and shall alone be fully responsible / liable for any decision taken on the basis of information contained herein.

MUTUAL FUND INVESTMENTS ARE SUBJECT TO MARKET RISKS, READ ALL SCHEME RELATED DOCUMENTS CAREFULLY

Mr. Charanjit Singh

Assistant Vice President - Equity, DSP Mutual Fund

Charanjit has a total work experience of over 16 years. He joined DSP Mutual Fund in September 2018 as Assistant Vice President in Equity Team. Charanjit has also worked with B&K Securities, Axis Capital, BNP Paribas Securities, Thomas Weisel Partners, HSBC, IDC Corp and Frost & Sullivan. He is a MBA in Finance and also holds a B.Tech in Electronics and Communication.

Q1. Regarding Operation Sindoor news, how do you anticipate its impact on market volatility? Do you expect significant fluctuations, or will the markets likely remain range-bound given the anticipated nature of this news?

Ans 1. Operation Sindoor has fundamentally altered perceptions of India's military capabilities and regional power status, establishing a new deterrence dynamic with Pakistan and signaling India's readiness to act decisively. The operation initially triggered market volatility but markets quickly stabilized and remained range-bound, with defence stocks rallying on expectations of increased spending before some profit-taking. The government's planned Rs 50,000 crore supplementary defence budget boost and increased focus on advanced military technologies and infrastructure sectors are likely to sustain positive sectoral momentum. Overall, Operation Sindoor has created selective opportunities in defence, infrastructure, and technology sectors amid a stable market environment, reflecting investor confidence in India's strategic and economic resilience. This mirrors the historical pattern where geopolitical crises cause short-term volatility but ultimately reinforce market strength and sectoral growth in areas aligned with national priorities.

Q2. What do you consider the most significant driver of market movement this year? Will it be interest rates, commodity prices, tariffs, or something else that will primarily dictate market volatility?

Ans 2. Markets have digested the uncertainty related to global tariff wars on hopes of lesser disruption and trade agreements by major economies. However, end to global turmoil is not in sight as Chinese growth is slowing down, US interest rates are holding steady and interest rates in Japan are moving up. Overall, the scenario is ripe for another 50bps rate cut by RBI over the next 6 months, however the declining rate differential with US and other large economies is a key factor to watch out for. Conditions are ripe for domestic demand recovery given lowest food inflation (1.78%) from Nov21 and CPI (3.16%) since August 2019, Strong crop output for Kharif and Rabi in FY25 (6.8% and >3% growth), normal monsoon prediction (106% of LPA) and benefits of tax cuts.

FY26 consensus earnings forecasts have been resilient through the reporting season. There could be a possibility of earnings upgrades in H2FY26. This is driven by two factors: i) consensus has not captured the full second-order impact of monetary easing and ii) soft commodity prices could produce margin surprises across sectors. We see the strongest likelihood of upgrades in discretionary, energy and technology sectors. Strong earnings resilience should help sustain momentum in Indian equities. Valuations are now in neutral territory, with the Nifty trading at long term average on 1 year forward P/E while 30% of BSE200 stocks are trading at P/Es that are over 1 standard deviation over long term average. Valuations could overshoot if earnings momentum accelerates, especially with strong tailwinds from monetary easing. We would use any short-term correction to add to positions.

Q3. What is the current sentiment of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) towards Indian markets? Despite recent net buying, they've withdrawn more than Rs 13,000 crore from the cash segment of Indian equity markets in April month.

Ans 3. The US-China agreement marks the passing of peak tariff pain. This tariff shock is likely to weigh on global trade/ economy. There will be rotation in to emerging markets led by reversal of US exceptionalism. This could lead to big lead to big flow out of US into the emerging markets which could be large as 1 trn USD. Over the last 4yrs FIIs sold $10bn over Apr 2021-March 2025. In last 10yrs net FII investment is almost negligible. There could be reversal of this trade someday which will lead to FII to start investing in India as a catchup trade. While India is in a better position given the limited dependence on trade, a currency competition has the potential to dent its recovery. India being a net importer will also face a depreciation dilemma many other EMs will not. Domestic macro and flows can support, but we do not anticipate FII flows to return quickly in such an environment. A fruitful trade treaty with the US will change the outlook.

Q4. Considering the recent earnings performance, the previously attractive banking and financial sector seems less compelling. In this market environment, where do you believe investors can find a significant margin of safety? If not financials, which sectors might offer promising opportunities?

Ans 4. Market concentration is rising as investors flocking to large-caps amidst correction. In previous episodes of rising concentration, defensive sectors, especially FMCG and Pharma outperformed in all episodes, whereas IT outperformed in two instances (2010-13 and 2017-20). For 2025 the quality factor could be the main investing theme which would keep consumption, pharma and IT sectors as main investing areas. While industrials could get impacted due to weaker capex growth by Central Government and slow revival in private capex. Selective sectors like Defense, Hospitals, Electronics, Capital Markets and Telecom could be also evaluated for investments based on the valuation comfort.

Q5. Given gold's recent rally to ₹1 lakh and its outperformance against equities, is the market now viewing it not only as a safe haven but also as a primary driver of returns?

Ans 5. Gold has trended lower since testing an all-time high of USD 3,500/oz on 22 April. The downward shift has been accompanied by ETP outflows and speculative positioning being scaled back, but China's demand remains supportive. Gold's rally has not been driven by a sole factor, and drivers from central bank flows to USD weakness remain supportive of further highs. While fears over the risk of recession remain and could stoke additional safe-haven demand for gold, a number of risks linger. These include: (1) slowing central bank buying; (2) de-escalation of tariff risks and increased market confidence; (3) market expectations around US rate cuts pausing or swinging to rate hikes; and (4) short-term risk from further volatility across other asset classes, leading to another liquidity rush or cash needs for margin calls, which would weigh on gold.

Q6. What's the outlook for investing in small and mid-cap stocks as we move into FY26? How should investors approach this segment?

Ans 6. Small and mid-cap stocks have experienced volatility recently, partly due to geopolitical tensions and investor rotation into thematic and sectoral funds. Looking ahead to FY26, these segments offer growth potential but come with higher risk and sensitivity to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Large caps benefiting from domestic recovery should be the focus, while SMIDs should be looked selectively where one spots fair bottom-up valuations.